Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
43.3% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
9.3%/yr
±5.3% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
1.4%/yr
±2.5% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated payments company in the United States, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, the Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand, Latin America, Canada, the Caribbean, and internationally.
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AXP delivered record FY2025 revenue of $72B (+10% YoY), EPS $15.38 (+15% ex-gains), ROE 34%. Net card fees hit $10B (+18%), billed business +8% FX-adj. Credit quality remains exceptional — delinquenci...