AMGN

Amgen Inc.

HealthcareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralNASDAQ

$353.25

+$1.78 (0.50%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$350.55

Upside-0.76%

Signal0

Market Cap$188.1B

52W Range$261.43–$391.29

Next EarningsApr 30

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$523.47

Current Price$348.77

Upside / Down+50.1%

P(Undervalued)96.9%

P(20%+ Up)84.2%

P(15%+ Down)0.0%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

96.9% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

1.0%/yr

±4.1% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

3.6%/yr

±3.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin compression or rising capex

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Amgen Inc.

Trailing P/E24.5x

Forward P/E15.0x

P/S5.1x

EPS (TTM)$14.23

Analyst Target$350.55

Analyst Upside-0.8%

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Bull Case

No analysis yet

Bear Case

No analysis yet

Research Feed

sec_10kFeb 28

Conviction: unchanged

AMGN FY2025 10-K: Prolia/XGEVA Cliff Meets MariTide Optionality

Product sales .1B (+9.7% YoY) driven by Horizon integration. Core headwinds: Prolia/XGEVA patent expiry (Feb/Nov 2025), ENBREL IRA pricing kicking in Jan 2026, Otezla IRA 2027. Bull catalysts: MariTid...