FY2025 10-K confirms AMD executing at scale: $34.6B revenue (+34%), OCF $6.5B, cash $10.6B. OpenAI 6GW GPU deal is landmark hyperscaler validation. CUDA moat real but ROCm investment is right strategy. China export control ($440M net charge) and 160M share OpenAI warrant are real risks. Raising from 6 to 7 - durable #2 in AI compute, margin gap vs NVDA caps at 7.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
38.8%/yr
±1.2% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
52.5%/yr
±3.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
FY2025: .6B revenue (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50%. Net cash .3B, OCF .5B. OpenAI 6GW deal validates AI GPU positioning but 160M share warrant creates ~10% ...
FY2025 revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client .6B (+51%). Net cash .3B, OCF .5B. OpenAI 6GW deal structurally validates Instinct platform. DC operating margin only 21.7% vs NVIDIA ~60%+ — ...
At $202, AMD trades at 18.8x forward EPS — cheap for a 34% growth company. AI inflection real. But OpenAI warrant (160M shares @ $0.01) represents ~10% dilution if fully vested, Data Center operating ...
10-K/A correction reveals 31% Client ASP growth (vs 15% unit growth) — strong pricing power. $34.6B revenue (+34%), $16.6B Data Center (+32%), OpenAI 6GW GPU deal binding, MI450 annual cadence confirm...
AMD FY2025 confirms AI inflection with 34% revenue growth and fortress balance sheet. OpenAI 6GW deal validates competitive GPU product. However, valuation compresses risk/reward: 77x P/E implies perf...
FY2025: Revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50% (+1%) despite M MI308 inventory charge. OpenAI 6GW warrant deal validates AI strategy. Risk: margin gap v...
FY2025: Revenue .6B (+34%), Data Center .6B (+32%), Client/Gaming .6B (+51%). Gross margin 50%. Net cash .3B. OpenAI 6GW GPU deal. MI308 export charge M net. Forward PE 18.8x on .75 EPS — cheap for gr...
AMD delivered 34% revenue growth and 94% operating income growth in FY2025, driven by Data Center (+32%) and Client/Gaming (+51%) segments. The OpenAI 6GW partnership and MI350X GPU ramp validate the ...
FY2025: Revenue $34.6B (+34%), Data Center $16.6B (+32%), Client/Gaming $14.6B (+51%), Embedded $3.5B (-3%). Gross margin 50% (+1pp). Net income $4.3B. Cash $10.6B vs debt $3.3B. OpenAI 6GW GPU deal +...
AMD Q4 2025: 10.3B (+34%), DC 5.4B. Q1 2026 guide 9.8B. OpenAI + Meta confirmed as Instinct customers. 44.7% upside to analyst mean 290. Bull: rising AI tide + EPYC CPU gains. Bear: NVIDIA CUDA moat, ...
AMD delivered 34% revenue growth to .6B in FY2025 — a genuine AI infrastructure inflection. Data Center +32% to .6B, Client/Gaming +51% to .6B. Landmark OpenAI deal (6 GW GPU commitment) validates hyp...