Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
38.2%/yr
±2.1% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
44.3%/yr
±3.7% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin compression or rising capex
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Applied Materials, Inc.
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Revenue -2% YoY (.01B), but the mix is improving: Taiwan +46% on TSMC N2 ramp, DRAM share expanding (34% vs 27%), AGS +15%. The M BIS settlement removes key legal overhang. Gross margin held at 49% de...