Allegion: DCF P(above)=13.3%, FV=$116 vs target $152. DCF suggests overvalued at current price. Electronic security/access control is a decent business but construction end markets facing headwinds with high interest rates. Downgrade to 5 (Lean Avoid): DCF does not support entry here, insufficient upside.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
12.9% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
11.3%/yr
±4.8% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
9.4%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
ALLE FY2025 shows strong pricing (+3.1%) and margin expansion offsetting volume weakness (+1.0%). Electronics growth positive; tariff recovery working but unsustainable long-term. Residential market s...