Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
100.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
-9.0%/yr
±1.4% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
-18.6%/yr
±1.1% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
The Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada.
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Allstate is the 3rd largest US P&C insurer, executing Transformative Growth strategy across personal lines (93.9% premiums). Key findings: (1) Underwriting margin pressure from inflation in vehicle re...