AES is a diversified utility/renewable power company but DCF FV=$3 vs current price ~$12 implies severe overvaluation by model. Prior target $23.50 makes no sense vs a $3 fair value. Either model is broken or fundamentals have deteriorated badly. Without reconcilable DCF data and given weak sector positioning, downgrade to 4 (Avoid). DCF FV too low to trust without re-run, but conviction cannot be 6 with no upside thesis.
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
25.0%/yr
±9.6% · revenue growth to justify current price
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Falcon deep read: Revenue .1B 9M (67% non-regulated, 33% regulated). Margin compression -250bps (20.3%→17.8%) from non-reg revenue decline, emissions cost surge (M vs M), Chile tariff caps. OCF strong...
AES Q3 2025 shows stable but compressing business with operational execution intact but margin pressure. Revenue flat, costs rising faster. Refinancing well-positioned. Key risks: Uplight impairment s...