No conviction changes recorded
Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands
0.0% of simulations place fair value above current price
WHAT IS PRICED IN
Revenue-Based Reverse DCF
31.4%/yr
±4.5% · revenue growth to justify current price
FCF-Based Reverse DCF
17.8%/yr
±2.9% · FCF growth to justify current price
THE GAP
Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization
KEY VALUE DRIVERS
Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
Eagle will generate this view by the next trading session (~7h).
FY26 10-K analysis re-run at current price (essentially at prior entry target). Revenue +18%, FCF +54% to $2.4B, AECO +22%, direct model complete. P/FCF FY27 ~18x at current price — cheap for qualit...
FY26 revenue $7.21B (+18%), FCF $2.41B (+54%). AECO grew 22%, direct revenue hit 63% (vs 39% TD Synnex prior). RPO $8.3B (+20%). FY27 guide conservative at 12-13% growth due to sales optimization fric...
Q3 FY26 10-Q confirms thesis: subscription revenue +19% YoY, AECO +23%, direct channel hit 66% of revenue (from 42% a year ago). RPO of $7.36B. FCF inflection massive. Full FY26 delivered $7.206B reve...
ADSK executes channel transition flawlessly (direct sales now 66%) while maintaining subscription growth >110% NR3. Profitability solid (38% non-GAAP op margin), cash generation strong (.46B CF). Paya...