ADBE

Adobe Inc.

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNASDAQ

$237.03

-$8.65 (-3.65%)today

Conviction

0/ 10

Fair Value$328.19

Upside+38.46%

Signal0

Market Cap$98.3B

52W Range$233.16–$422.95

Next EarningsJun 11

Price History

FAIR VALUE ANALYSISMonte Carlo · 5,000 runs · 99% valid

Fair Value$226.29

Current Price$234.84

Upside / Down-3.6%

P(Undervalued)39.7%

P(20%+ Up)6.2%

P(15%+ Down)18.3%

Fair Value Distribution — percentile bands

39.7% of simulations place fair value above current price

WHAT IS PRICED IN

Revenue-Based Reverse DCF

9.2%/yr

±3.6% · revenue growth to justify current price

FCF-Based Reverse DCF

-0.2%/yr

±2.4% · FCF growth to justify current price

THE GAP

Market pricing margin expansion or capex normalization

KEY VALUE DRIVERS

Spearman correlation — what moves this valuation most

Quick Take

Adobe Inc.

Trailing P/E14.0x

Forward P/E9.2x

P/S4.0x

EPS (TTM)$17.17

Analyst Target$328.19

Analyst Upside38.5%

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Bull Case

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Bear Case

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Research Feed

sec_10kMar 1

Conviction: unchanged

Adobe FY2025 10-K: AI Monetization Winning Over Disruption Narrative

FY2025 revenue +11% to .77B, net income +28% to .13B, FCF .03B (+25%). Total Adobe ARR .20B (+11.5%). Stock at 52-week lows near 10x forward earnings. AI platform (Firefly, Acrobat AI Assistant, GenSt...